Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Lawrence Yun Spins And Misrepresents Data

The National Association Of Realtors released their September 2007 existing home sales data. The numbers showed the housing market continues to decline.

  • National: Months supply of housing increased from 9.6 in August 07 to 10.5 this month
  • National: Months supply of housing increased from 7.3 in September 06 to 10.5
  • National: Inventory was up .4% this month compare to last and up 16.3% over last September
  • National: September 07 Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last month -8%
  • National: September 07 Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last year -19.1%
  • National: September 07 Not Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last month -28.9%
  • National: September 07 Not Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last year -22.7%

They quickly turned their spin machine into overdrive.
Lawrence Yun blamed 'temporary' problems in the mortgage market and assured us these mortgage 'problems' were already improving.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said the decline is understandable. “Mortgage problems were peaking back in August when many of the September closings were being negotiated, and that slowed sales notably in higher priced areas that rely more on jumbo loans,” he said. “The good news is that mortgage availability has markedly improved in recent weeks with interest rates on jumbo loans falling, and more people are applying for safer and conforming FHA mortgage products. Some of the cancelled transactions will move forward as buyers apply for other loans.”

Mr. Yun went on to say that prices were really rising in many area.

“Because there were fewer transactions at the upper end of the market, there is a downward distortion reflected in a lower national median home price. Home prices continue to trend up in the Northeast and in the condo sector. In other areas not dependent on jumbo loans, such as much of the Midwest, prices are rising.”

The evidence shows that overall prices are not rising in both the Northeast and the condo market. Look at the Case Schiller Index as well as date from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

Remember last year in September the NAR reported "Total existing-home sales -- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops -- dipped 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.18 million" David Lereah the NAR's cheif economist, and Yun's boss at the time said "this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction -- this is likely the trough for sales." Since then the seasonally adjusted rate is down 19% to 5.04 million. Some trough? The NAR's spokespeople cannot be trusted as they are paid shills who give propagandist predictions. They are super spinners.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

No Yun! Speculative Prices Still Exist

“‘The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains,’ Yun said.”

In bubble markets across the country, speculative excesses not only occurred in terms of the number of housing units sold, but also the prices are speculative. The speculative excesses cannot be removed unless real dollar prices fall much more in bubble markets. Stopping spinning Yun! Accept the harsh reality of the declining housing market, that is a long way from bottom.