Monday, March 24, 2008
A History Of Wrong Predictions By The Chief Economists of the National Association of Realtors. This would be the discredited David Lereah and Lawrence Yun.
Click on the image for a larger version. David Lereah left the NAR in May 2007.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
The National Association of Realtors(R) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has been named among the top 10 economic forecasters by USA Today. Yun is ranked fifth on the list and is responsible for NAR's real estate statistics and economic forecasting. The annual list recognizes accuracy in forecasting.
I'm honored to be recognized among some of the best economists in the country," said Yun. "The economy and housing industry are facing many challenging issues at this time, which makes this an interesting and stimulating position
USA Today certainly did not do its homework. Have they read the Lawrence Yun Watch?
In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "
As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.Do not trust Lawrence Yun.
Yun even recently admitted that "It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast."
The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility. The USA Today should be ashamed of its shoddy work.
Monday, March 10, 2008
What is critically needed at this important point in the housing cycle is a measure to assuredly and quickly raise home buying activity. This can be accomplished by providing a homebuyer tax-credit. A nationwide $5,000 tax credit (the same amount currently in existence for homebuyers in Washington, D.C.) will cost the federal government $40 billion. If factoring in rising economic activity and accompanying rising tax revenue, then the true cost could be minimal or even positively favorable. A reversal in the weakness in the housing market, which has been subtracting about one percentage point off GDP growth, can add $40 billion to the U.S. Treasury - essentially offsetting the cost of the tax credit. If the initial $40 billion cost is harder to swallow than a more targeted tax credit for only the first-time homebuyers will cost the government about $15 billion.
No way! This discredited Realtor hack's proposal is ridiculous. The US Government should not give out more incentives for people to purchase overpriced housing units. The US Government already has a large deficit and enormous debt. It would be unwise to spend needed money to assist and encourage people to buy depreciating assets.
Keith Writes: Now he wants to get housing demand flowing again (while stimulating realtor commissions of course) not by the traditional means of lowering prices, but by bribing buyers with a tax credit.
Here's a suggestion Lawrence - IT'S CALLED LOWER THE DAMN PRICES.
You want demand (and realtor commissions) to return? You might want to check out the relationship between demand and price. They taught you that in your Econ 101 class at Purdue, right? We know you read HP, so please brush up on your econ 101 here that Purdue must have failed to teach you. Glad we could help.
Folks, any sucker dumb enough to take a $5,000 government bribe to buy a depreciating debt-trap would be an even bigger idiot than Lawrence Yun. And that's saying something.Oh, Yun says this would ONLY cost the US taxpayer $40 billion. What a deal!
Friday, March 07, 2008
NAR is Spinister. Solid article outlining the major communications problems the NAR has during the housing bubble era.NAR Wisdom - solid site. "This weblog was created out of frustration. Frustration with the NAR. They seem almost completely out of touch with today's market, and the needs of real estate agents and real estate consumers alike"
One Realtor is not happy paying Yun's Salary.