Mr. Yun's September 2005 Prediction is Way Off

Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 6.3%.

Do not trust Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility.

A simple question for Lawrence Yun

Mr. Yun,

What exactly is it that makes you think US home sales and prices will rebound next year?

* The record and swelling inventory?
* The worldwide crashing debt markets?
* The millions of REIC losing their jobs?
* The fact that renting is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper than "owning"?
* The massive fraud-related demand that will NEVER come back?
* The congressional investigations?
* The disappearance of no-down, no-doc mortgages?
* The looming recession?
* The blowup over at Fannie and Freddie?
* The hundreds of mortgage companies that have failed?
* The tightened lending requirements?
* The complete loss of confidence amongst potential buyers?
* The sea of foreclosures?
* The massive wave of ARM resets
* The destruction of collateralized debt, CDOs and SIVs?
* The loss of buying power of the US dollar?
* The plunging consumer confidence index?

I could go on. But Mr. Yun, please illuminate us. You're the Senior Economist after all, and obviously we have no idea what we're talking about here. You must know something we don't know. Your detailed and sophisticated NAR financial models must be seeing something we can't see. You must think Manias, Panics and Crashes is a bunch of hooey. And you must have 21 great reasons too (the year round golf, right?).

So do tell. Please share with us your detailed financial modeling and statistical evidence that has led you as an economist to your conclusions. The floor is yours.

The market for existing homes is "hitting the low right now" and heading for a "modest recovery" next year, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said at the group's annual convention here Tuesday.

NAR expects the national median price of existing homes to decline 1.7 percent to $218,200 for this year and hold steady in 2008.

Yun said housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes. "The pent-up demand is there," he said.

OK, so Lawrence Yun reads HousingPANIC and LawrenceYunWatch. So we have a message for him...

This is gonna be a bit direct, so sorry HP'ers, but it is deserved, and it is our responsibility:

LAWRENCE YUN, GO F*CK YOURSELF.

Shall I go on? Ok.

Lawrence Yun, you go to work every day and do evil. You help ruin lives. Your parents are likely ashamed of you. Your college professors wonder where they went wrong.

Just stop. Be a man. Quit the NAR tomorrow. Come clean. You'll make MILLIONS by doing the right thing, turning against the evildoers at the NAR, versus the thousands you're making today on their leash. You'll be the star of the 2008 Senate Hearings (instead of the dick). You'll do your family proud. You'll regain your humanity. You'll do good.

Or not.

Seriously, Lawrence, life is too short to be a stooge, a pawn, a hack, a conman, a liar. Life is too short to be the paid shill of the most evil and disrespected organization in America today. Life is too short to spin lies for realtors. Life is too short to be Lawrence Yun. I truly want you to see the evil you're doing in your life, and step away from the dark side. Seriously, Lawrence. Join the forces of good. Send me a note. Quit your job. Be a man.

Meanwhile, HP'ers, here's the latest evil-doing from the man himself, care of Diana's blog at CNBC, followed by his lies to the media earlier today. God, I hope this person finds truth, reason and a sense of purpose. What hell it must be to be Lawrence Yun. Please join me in sending your personal messages to Lawrence Yun, and his masters at the NAR.

Lawrence Yun: "I'm glad we are living in a free society where we have the right for the bloggers to blog and have fun at it. So it's great that people can blog.

In terms of the forecast, we have revised down our forecast based upon all the fresh information that arrives in the latest month and as a result we think it's responsible to modify the forecast incorporating new information.

We have revised down our forecast by, I believe, by 8 straight months according to some bloggers. I have never kept track of it. I just try to make the most accurate forecasts, but because of this information I have been tracking the blue chip forecast on the housing starts, they don't have a forecast for the home sales, but on the blue chip which is comprised of Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch and many others, and they have revised down their housing forecasts for 20 straight months.

The fact that NAR is getting a lot of publicity, that's all good for us that people are paying attention to what we are saying, but just factual information, I think everyone from Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs they are revising down their housing market forecast."

And here's the infuriating lies and disinformation Lawrence Yun was forced to put out by the NAR earlier today:

As bleak as the data are, the fundamentals of the market don't support a further decline in sales, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, who said low mortgage rates and job growth should keep sales from falling. While the subprime mortgage market has disappeared, the Federal Housing Administration is picking up its lending.

"I don't anticipate any further major sales declines," Yun said. However, the NAR didn't anticipate the sales declines of the past two years, and it's been predicting a bottom nearly every month since early 2006.

If sales do continue to fall because of negative market psychology aided by "sensationalized" news reporting, "it would be a major concern" and "would raise the risk of an economic recession," Yun said.

Yun: Florida is Ground Zero for Housing

“While home sales have dropped nationwide, they have plummeted in Florida, which is ‘ground zero for the housing market slump,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.”

Yun Makes Misleading Investment Comparison

“Home buyers in it for the long haul nearly always come out ahead in building wealth. Given the leverage in purchasing a home, the average return on a 5 percent downpayment over 10 years is usually three to five times greater than stock market returns,” he said. “When people compare investment returns, they often overlook the power of leverage in the housing market.”

Yun said a $10,000 downpayment on a median-priced home, at a typical appreciation rate of 5 percent, would be worth $110,000 after 10 years. That same amount invested in the stock market for the same amount of time, assuming 10 percent annual appreciation, would be worth $23,600. “That’s why housing is the best long-term investment most families ever make – the longer you own, the better your investment,” he said. (Realtor.org 11/12/07)

Yun you are intentionally misleading. Stocks don't require monthly mortgage payments, yearly taxes or maintenance costs. Housing units do. Lawrence 'paid misleader' Yun cannot and should not be trusted.

Lawrence Yun Interview

Lawrence Yun Interview

Lawrence Yun Promoted to Chief Economist

Lawrence Yun was promoted to chief economist (aka spinner) for the National Association of Realtors (NAR). In a press release from NAR:

The National Association of Realtors® today named Lawrence Yun chief economist and senior vice president of research. Yun has served at NAR since 2000, most recently as vice president and senior economist.


“Lawrence is a talented economist and an outstanding forecaster who has contributed greatly to NAR’s growth and prestige as the leading advocate for the housing industry,” said Dale Stinton, NAR executive vice president and chief executive officer. “We are proud to have a man of Lawrence’s integrity and honor.


“He is a no-nonsense and level-headed analyst of the housing market who calls the data as he sees it, and has guided NAR with skill as chief spokesman for the past several months in a competitive real estate market. We have great faith and trust that Lawrence’s tenure will be a stellar one that will enhance NAR’s reputation as the most reliable and credible source of real estate research.”



Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster;' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 he predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. " As we know priced have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction.

Do not trust Mr. Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility.

LawrenceYunWatch Stupid Question of the Day

Should Lawrence Yun and David Lereah be prosecuted for their lies?