Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Yun Says Housing Market is "Scrathing Bottom"

Reuters reports that "The NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the market is 'scratching the bottom,' with sales holding at a deflated rate of around 5 million units for the past several months."

That is just what Yun's mentor the infamous David Lereah said in March 2007: "Sales have hovered for the last four months, scratching bottom and then coming up, scratching bottom and coming up again. We are comfortable this is now the bottom"

Friday, February 22, 2008

Lawrence Yun Cannot be Trusted

Lawrence Yun, the chief paid spinner at the Realtors Association regularly speaks at real estate related gatherings throughout country. The Rockford Register Star reports:

The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors had a strong message to potential home buyers who may be waiting to see if prices in the Rock River Valley will go into free fall before putting in an offer.“There is no chance of a large price decline in Rockford,” Lawrence Yun told a crowd of more than 400 at Cliffbreakers, 700 W. Riverside Blvd. “There is not a price bubble in Rockford.”

But, can he be trusted?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.

Do not trust Lawrence Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his
contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility.

Thursday, February 21, 2008


No, this is not a HP April Fools joke, it's real. Yun still has his head up his rear, and is still putting out bulls*it forecasts, but I think he's trying to prepare the ground for his eventual and unavoidable resignation from the NAR, knowing he'll need to find new work after that.

You'll love the latest commentary from Yun - he tries to throw HousingPANIC under the bus, and even defends Alan Greenspan, saying he didn't cause the housing bubble. Unreal.

A simple question comes to mind - how much longer will the six-percenters keep paying their dues to the very organization doing them the most harm?

Here's the latest musings from the most discredited economist in the world, Lawrence Yun, writing for the most discredited organization in the world, the National Association of Realtors:

Back in 2001, in the aftermath of the internet stock bubble collapse and the September 11 terrorist attacks, Alan Greenspan — then the Fed chairman — made deep cuts in interest rates in order to stave off a possible economic recession. Many also blame Mr. Greenspan for having fueled the housing market bubble and subsequent collapse by keeping the rates too low for too long.

Though some in the blogosphere have figured Alan Greenspan as one of the key persons to blame for the current housing mess, I do not blame Mr. Greenspan. I believe there is plenty of blame to go around due to other factors.

It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast. I knew that the boom was clearly unsustainable and I made the forecast in early 2007 that home prices were likely to experience a price decline on a national level for the first time since the Great Depression. The national median home price indeed fell by 1.4%. I believe I downgraded my forecast for ten or so straight months in 2007 as it was strongly pointed out to me. At the same time, the Blue Chip consensus forecast, comprised of about top 50 private forecasters, including forecasts by Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UCLA, and the like — had also downgraded the housing forecast by more than 20 straight months. Forecasting is never perfect. Forecasts are bound to be off but the forecaster's job is to make the best prognosis given the available information at the time. The readers should always view any forecast with caveat emptor.

Will we experience a re-emergence of a housing boom from the current easy money policy by the Fed? The answer is no because as Abraham Lincoln said — fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It will be impossible to part global capital providers' money with another foolish investment.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Commentators at Calculated Risk Bash Mr. Yun

Commentators at Calculated Risk Blog Bash Mr. Yun. We need a louder chorus of people to bash Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun.

As far as NAR goes, the chief Economists forecasts have been way off for such a long time. It makes me wonder if his models incorporate a factor that puts more weight on his association member's best interest, than good economics. To me what comes out of that office as far as forecasts have very little credibility these days. [commentator: canuck]

If I have the NAR and Yun's (il)logic understood correctly, "All real estate is local," except when offering criticism of Case-Shiller. Then, Dr. Shiller is some profit-engineering hack with an agenda, and doesn't take into account broader trends. [commentator: kurtyboy]

Yun's bias of course is given, but this piece is just shocking in how poorly it is argued and written. Chief economist of the NAR! If a 25-year-old MBA investment banking recruit delivered this to his bankers/traders as a summary of differing indices, it would be seen as unacceptably poor work. [commentator: numbacrunch]

The NAR should just hire that Baghdad Bob Iraqi information minister. [commentator: ]

We all know NAR spews lies, propaganda, false housing data, etc. As far as I'm concerned anything NAR has to say is unimportant fictional gibberish and a waste of time reading. It borders on insulting when NAR fairy tails corrupt the pages of Calculated Risk. [commentator: CAT]

Mr Yun, we've put up with your nonsense because every chankered hooker needs to earn a living. But you'll learn to watch your mouth around your betters, or you'll be tasting the back of my hand. [commentator: Markel]
PS: Everyone used to complain about Lereah, but to me Yun seems infinitely less connected to reality. [commentator:
Lawrence Yun is a Shill. His directive is to try to gain some credibiity so people buy houses and realtors make commissions. Anyone who listens to anything he says is a fool. [commentator: Ministry of Truth]

It's really quite amazing to see the lead NAR shill trying to paint Shiller as a shill. Geez, he basically accuses him of being un-American (quote, an approach that flies directly in the face of the American sense of democratic values.) The NAR comedy keeps coming! [commentator:

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Lawrence Yun Spins In Rochester

Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun is back blaming the media and saying the housing slump is 'greatly exaggerated.' This paid spinner does not know when to be quiet. The Rochester Democrat Chronicle wrote:

Talk of a pending recession spurred by a housing slump is greatly exaggerated by national media and could spur a self-fulfilling prophecy as the negative news is emphasized, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors told local real estate agents today.“Paraphrasing Franklin Delano Roosevelt, what I fear is fear itself,” Lawrence Yun said at the Greater Rochester Association of Realtors 2008 Real Estate Trends and Issues luncheon today at the Hyatt Regency Hotel.

Yun told the audience that the national news outlets tend to cherry pick data and expert interviews to perpetuate the story that the economy is heading into recession as housing prices fall and foreclosure rates rise.“If the news organizations have an agenda, they will call somebody and they’ll get the information they want,” he said.

Mr. Yun has not yet reached the level absurdity of the infamous David Lereah, but he is sure heading in that direction. Yun has been discredited for his paid spining and his ridiculous predictions.

Lawrence Yun should be fired because he has lost his credibility. The NAR should get out of the business of making predictions about the housing market as they have been so wrong, often.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

LawrenceYunWatch calls for the immediate firing of the NAR's "chief economist" Lawrence Yun

But hey, we're not holding our breath.

Everyone by now knows that Lawrence Yun, and before him David Lereah, are completely and totally discredited by now. The MSM should never print one quote from this paid liar without first stating "Lawrence Yun, who is paid to lie by the NAR, ..."

Well, even Lawrence Yun is having to deal with the reality that housing is in the early days of a historic and epic crash. And even though just a few days ago he put out a report that 2008 would be rosy, today the NAR did an about-face and admitted that 2008 is gonna suck.

Although their definition of "suck" is still nowhere near reality. You have economists predicting a 25% decline in prices and the NAR is saying 1.2%.

Yeah, good luck with that.

realtors and the NAR are now beyond hope. The realtor profession is dead, it is discredited, it is disrespected and it is destroyed. And the NAR represents the very worst of the profession - corrupt, lying and anti-American.

F*ck the NAR. F*ck Lawrence Yun. And f*ck the realtors. The jig is up.

Home prices set to slide in '08 - National Association of Realtors pulls back on outlook and forecasts second consecutive annual decline in prices and sales

NEW YORK ( -- In a fresh sign that the nation's housing crisis will worsen, home prices are likely to decline in 2008 for the second straight year, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

"We're seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly," said Lawrence Yun, the group's chief economist, in a statement.