Yun Changes His 2008 'No Recession' Prediction

Back in later 2007 "In predictions supplied to USA Today, Lawrence Yun predicted that there would not be a recession in 2008."

"Yun now expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract for two consecutive quarters, in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009. (Sun Herald)" In other words, Yun is now saying a recession beginning in the 4th quarter of 2008 and continuing into 2009.

Once again, Yun's prediction has changed dramatically, due to reality not jiving with his prediction.

Yun Criticizes Bernanke & Media on Negative Stories on Hounsing

Yun criticizes Bernanke & media on negative stories on hounsing. The Times Union reports:

The reason for that gap, in Yun's view, is eroding consumer confidence largely caused by negativity, both in the media and elsewhere, about the market. Yun, by contrast, is more optimistic, believing the housing slump is nearly over.

"The winter months are always weaker (for home sales), but this winter will be better than last winter," he said. "There is this great pent-up demand that cannot be held back any further."

Events of the last few days might make such economic optimism seem far-fetched. And even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has predicted continuing housing market weakness.

Yun, in fact, on Monday rebuked Bernanke for such predictions, saying if it's inappropriate to forecast stock or oil prices, "it is inappropriate to comment on home prices, because people react to that."

To applause from his Realtor audience, Yun said he had made that point in a letter to Bernanke.

And he rued that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is also issuing more negative housing market predictions.

"But there's little that can be done about that," Yun said.

Yun Call New GSE Lending Standards 'Overly Stringent'

"Overly stringent lending criteria imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the past month no doubt held back contract signings," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. (Chattanooga RE 9/15/08)

Was he complaining about the loose lending standards, which led to the collapse of Fannie & Freddie, during the boom years?

Yun Interview

Lawrence Yun being interviewed by Diana Olick (CNBC)

Glenn Beck Mocks the Yun & Lereah

Glenn Beck mocks the current and former chief economists at the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun & David Lereah for the their history of bad predictions.

Yun Keeps on Spinning!

The NAR releasesd their monthly existing home sales figures for June. Bloomberg reports:

Resales dropped 2.6 percent to a lower than forecast 4.86 million annual rate from a 4.99 million pace the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median home price dropped 6.1 percent from June last year.

``There are signs of pent up demand,'' Yun said during the press conference. ``People are very hesitant to enter the market because of price declines.'' A stabilization in prices would bring first-time buyers into the market, allowing current owners to move up in the market, he said.

Yun added " "I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said (AP News).

Keep spinning Yun! According to Yun and the NAR it is always a good time to buy a housing unit. Also, the recovery is just around the next corner.

You, Yun, have lost your credibility and should resign in shame!

Wikipedia Article Needed for Lawrence Yun

There is a need for a Wikipedia article on Lawrence Yun (chief economist for the National Association of Realtors). But, there is a solid article about Yun's predecessor David Lereah. Volunteers are needed to create a Wikipedia entry on Lawrence Yun

For more information about Mr. Yun please read this blog.

Is This Guy for Real?

A Powerpoint Slide from a Recent Real Estate Presentation
by Lawrence Yun in June 08

Is this guy for real? Calling a few large cities in the US 'Superstar Cities Defy Gravity' when it comes to housing prices in the next five years. Mr. Yun has lost credibility and is obviously a paid spinning shill. T he Realtors should fire him as he has lost his credibilty.

Daniel Gross Blasts Sunny Yun

Daniel Gross blasts Lawerence 'Sunny' Yun in an article explaining why the US Economy is worse than many think.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, tells NEWSWEEK that "home sales and prices in most of the country will improve during the second half of 2008." (Yun is the Little Orphan Annie of forecasters. He's always sure the sun will come out tomorrow.)

I'm glad Mr. Gross continues to bash this paid spinner who has discredited himself, based on his inane predictions that have proven terribly wrong.

Yun: Prices Going Down So Fast

"Because the prices are going down so fast, we'll be hitting the stabilization point sooner," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Assn. of Realtors.

Oh well! No bottom yet!

YuniSphere Roundup

If Lawrence Yun Wanted to be More Helpful ..... (The Mess That Greenspan Made)

Yun has lunch with some friendly bloggers.

Yun spins some more. When will he get dizzy and quit?

The late 20006 National Association of Realtors Ad Campaign. Yun and the other discredited paid shills at the Realtors' Association cannot be trusted. Lawrence Yun should resign in shame.

Lawrence Yun brings sunshine to Michigan. Michigan refuses to cooperate.

FOLKS, LAWRENCE YUN IS EVEN WORSE THAN DAVID LEREAH. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF RAMEN EATERS SHOULD DISMISS THIS FOOL BEFORE HE DOES EVEN MORE DAMAGE.

Ah, screw it. He's the gift that keeps on giving. I hope he stays until they board up the NAR HQ. I hope he stays long enough to testify in front of Congress.

Here's Yun in economic collapse and housing crash ground zero Michigan, saying there's no recession, no contraction, and anyone who buys today is going to have huge equity gains in 2 years.

Amazing.

Lawrence Yun in all his glory

No, this video is not a gag. It's real. And the NAR is run by monkeys.

Yun: Nobody Expected Housing Bust

Lawrence Yun is wrong once again, this time he is being a revisionist:

"Even though there was some risk, the ratings agencies fooled the market and the investors into thinking housing was rock solid," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR). "It was the speed and the scope of the losses that nobody expected."

Nobody expected? What about all Nouriel Roubini, Dean Baker and Robert Shiller and dozens of housing bubble bloggers?

Message to Yun: You have lost your credibility, it is time to resign. Become a whistle blower and tell us what really is going on in the housing market and especially at the NAR.

A History Of Wrong Predictions By The Chief Economists of the National Association of Realtors

A History Of Wrong Predictions By The Chief Economists of the National Association of Realtors. This would be the discredited David Lereah and Lawrence Yun.

Click on the image for a larger version. David Lereah left the NAR in May 2007.

Lawrence Yun Predicted No Recession in 2008

In predictions supplied to USA Today, Lawrence Yun predicted that there would not be a recession in 2008.

5. Lawrence Yun
Chief economist, National Association of Realtors
Fed rate 2008 low 2.25%
Recession in 2008? No

Lawrence Yun Watch #1 On Google for Term 'Lawrence Yun'

This blog, the Lawrence Yun Watch, makes #1 on Google when searching for 'Lawrence Yun'.

Take that Yun, you discredited paid spinner. The truth is being revealed.

Ridiculous: USA Today Names Lawrence Yun as Top Economic Forecaster

The USA Today named Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors as its fifth top economic forecaster. Here is the USA Today Article.

The National Association of Realtors(R) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has been named among the top 10 economic forecasters by USA Today. Yun is ranked fifth on the list and is responsible for NAR's real estate statistics and economic forecasting. The annual list recognizes accuracy in forecasting.

I'm honored to be recognized among some of the best economists in the country," said Yun. "The economy and housing industry are facing many challenging issues at this time, which makes this an interesting and stimulating position

USA Today certainly did not do its homework. Have they read the Lawrence Yun Watch?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.Do not trust Lawrence Yun.

Yun even recently admitted that "It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast."

The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility. The USA Today should be ashamed of its shoddy work.

Lawrence Yun Proposes Federal Dollars to Grease Home Buying

Lawrence Yun proposes federal government dollars to grease home buying.

What is critically needed at this important point in the housing cycle is a measure to assuredly and quickly raise home buying activity. This can be accomplished by providing a homebuyer tax-credit. A nationwide $5,000 tax credit (the same amount currently in existence for homebuyers in Washington, D.C.) will cost the federal government $40 billion. If factoring in rising economic activity and accompanying rising tax revenue, then the true cost could be minimal or even positively favorable. A reversal in the weakness in the housing market, which has been subtracting about one percentage point off GDP growth, can add $40 billion to the U.S. Treasury - essentially offsetting the cost of the tax credit. If the initial $40 billion cost is harder to swallow than a more targeted tax credit for only the first-time homebuyers will cost the government about $15 billion.

No way! This discredited Realtor hack's proposal is ridiculous. The US Government should not give out more incentives for people to purchase overpriced housing units. The US Government already has a large deficit and enormous debt. It would be unwise to spend needed money to assist and encourage people to buy depreciating assets.

Keith Writes: Now he wants to get housing demand flowing again (while stimulating realtor commissions of course) not by the traditional means of lowering prices, but by bribing buyers with a tax credit.

Here's a suggestion Lawrence - IT'S CALLED LOWER THE DAMN PRICES.

You want demand (and realtor commissions) to return? You might want to check out the relationship between demand and price. They taught you that in your Econ 101 class at Purdue, right? We know you read HP, so please brush up on your econ 101 here that Purdue must have failed to teach you. Glad we could help.

Folks, any sucker dumb enough to take a $5,000 government bribe to buy a depreciating debt-trap would be an even bigger idiot than Lawrence Yun. And that's saying something.Oh, Yun says this would ONLY cost the US taxpayer $40 billion. What a deal!

Lawrence Yun Roundup

NAR is Spinister. Solid article outlining the major communications problems the NAR has during the housing bubble era.

This guy Wants Yun Out as Chief Economist

NAR Wisdom - solid site. "This weblog was created out of frustration. Frustration with the NAR. They seem almost completely out of touch with today's market, and the needs of real estate agents and real estate consumers alike"

One Realtor is not happy paying Yun's Salary.

Yun Says Housing Market is "Scrathing Bottom"

Reuters reports that "The NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the market is 'scratching the bottom,' with sales holding at a deflated rate of around 5 million units for the past several months."

That is just what Yun's mentor the infamous David Lereah said in March 2007: "Sales have hovered for the last four months, scratching bottom and then coming up, scratching bottom and coming up again. We are comfortable this is now the bottom"

Lawrence Yun Cannot be Trusted

Lawrence Yun, the chief paid spinner at the Realtors Association regularly speaks at real estate related gatherings throughout country. The Rockford Register Star reports:

The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors had a strong message to potential home buyers who may be waiting to see if prices in the Rock River Valley will go into free fall before putting in an offer.“There is no chance of a large price decline in Rockford,” Lawrence Yun told a crowd of more than 400 at Cliffbreakers, 700 W. Riverside Blvd. “There is not a price bubble in Rockford.”

But, can he be trusted?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.

Do not trust Lawrence Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility.

PIGS FLY ALERT!!! LAWRENCE YUN ADMITS TO HOUSING BUBBLE AND COLLAPSE, AND LOUSY NAR FORECASTS, AND CALLS SUBPRIME MORTAGES A "FOOLISH INVESTMENT"

No, this is not a HP April Fools joke, it's real. Yun still has his head up his rear, and is still putting out bulls*it forecasts, but I think he's trying to prepare the ground for his eventual and unavoidable resignation from the NAR, knowing he'll need to find new work after that.

You'll love the latest commentary from Yun - he tries to throw HousingPANIC under the bus, and even defends Alan Greenspan, saying he didn't cause the housing bubble. Unreal.

A simple question comes to mind - how much longer will the six-percenters keep paying their dues to the very organization doing them the most harm?

Here's the latest musings from the most discredited economist in the world, Lawrence Yun, writing for the most discredited organization in the world, the National Association of Realtors:

Back in 2001, in the aftermath of the internet stock bubble collapse and the September 11 terrorist attacks, Alan Greenspan — then the Fed chairman — made deep cuts in interest rates in order to stave off a possible economic recession. Many also blame Mr. Greenspan for having fueled the housing market bubble and subsequent collapse by keeping the rates too low for too long.

Though some in the blogosphere have figured Alan Greenspan as one of the key persons to blame for the current housing mess, I do not blame Mr. Greenspan. I believe there is plenty of blame to go around due to other factors.

It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast. I knew that the boom was clearly unsustainable and I made the forecast in early 2007 that home prices were likely to experience a price decline on a national level for the first time since the Great Depression. The national median home price indeed fell by 1.4%. I believe I downgraded my forecast for ten or so straight months in 2007 as it was strongly pointed out to me. At the same time, the Blue Chip consensus forecast, comprised of about top 50 private forecasters, including forecasts by Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UCLA, and the like — had also downgraded the housing forecast by more than 20 straight months. Forecasting is never perfect. Forecasts are bound to be off but the forecaster's job is to make the best prognosis given the available information at the time. The readers should always view any forecast with caveat emptor.

Will we experience a re-emergence of a housing boom from the current easy money policy by the Fed? The answer is no because as Abraham Lincoln said — fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It will be impossible to part global capital providers' money with another foolish investment.

Commentators at Calculated Risk Bash Mr. Yun

Commentators at Calculated Risk Blog Bash Mr. Yun. We need a louder chorus of people to bash Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun.

As far as NAR goes, the chief Economists forecasts have been way off for such a long time. It makes me wonder if his models incorporate a factor that puts more weight on his association member's best interest, than good economics. To me what comes out of that office as far as forecasts have very little credibility these days. [commentator: canuck]

If I have the NAR and Yun's (il)logic understood correctly, "All real estate is local," except when offering criticism of Case-Shiller. Then, Dr. Shiller is some profit-engineering hack with an agenda, and doesn't take into account broader trends. [commentator: kurtyboy]


Yun's bias of course is given, but this piece is just shocking in how poorly it is argued and written. Chief economist of the NAR! If a 25-year-old MBA investment banking recruit delivered this to his bankers/traders as a summary of differing indices, it would be seen as unacceptably poor work. [commentator: numbacrunch]

The NAR should just hire that Baghdad Bob Iraqi information minister. [commentator: Speaker73]

We all know NAR spews lies, propaganda, false housing data, etc. As far as I'm concerned anything NAR has to say is unimportant fictional gibberish and a waste of time reading. It borders on insulting when NAR fairy tails corrupt the pages of Calculated Risk. [commentator: CAT]

Mr Yun, we've put up with your nonsense because every chankered hooker needs to earn a living. But you'll learn to watch your mouth around your betters, or you'll be tasting the back of my hand. [commentator: Markel]

PS: Everyone used to complain about Lereah, but to me Yun seems infinitely less connected to reality. [commentator: MaxedOutMama]


Lawrence Yun is a Shill. His directive is to try to gain some credibiity so people buy houses and realtors make commissions. Anyone who listens to anything he says is a fool. [commentator: Ministry of Truth]


It's really quite amazing to see the lead NAR shill trying to paint Shiller as a shill. Geez, he basically accuses him of being un-American (quote, an approach that flies directly in the face of the American sense of democratic values.) The NAR comedy keeps coming! [commentator:
ShortCourage]

Lawrence Yun Spins In Rochester

Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun is back blaming the media and saying the housing slump is 'greatly exaggerated.' This paid spinner does not know when to be quiet. The Rochester Democrat Chronicle wrote:

Talk of a pending recession spurred by a housing slump is greatly exaggerated by national media and could spur a self-fulfilling prophecy as the negative news is emphasized, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors told local real estate agents today.“Paraphrasing Franklin Delano Roosevelt, what I fear is fear itself,” Lawrence Yun said at the Greater Rochester Association of Realtors 2008 Real Estate Trends and Issues luncheon today at the Hyatt Regency Hotel.

Yun told the audience that the national news outlets tend to cherry pick data and expert interviews to perpetuate the story that the economy is heading into recession as housing prices fall and foreclosure rates rise.“If the news organizations have an agenda, they will call somebody and they’ll get the information they want,” he said.

Mr. Yun has not yet reached the level absurdity of the infamous David Lereah, but he is sure heading in that direction. Yun has been discredited for his paid spining and his ridiculous predictions.

Lawrence Yun should be fired because he has lost his credibility. The NAR should get out of the business of making predictions about the housing market as they have been so wrong, often.

LawrenceYunWatch calls for the immediate firing of the NAR's "chief economist" Lawrence Yun

But hey, we're not holding our breath.

Everyone by now knows that Lawrence Yun, and before him David Lereah, are completely and totally discredited by now. The MSM should never print one quote from this paid liar without first stating "Lawrence Yun, who is paid to lie by the NAR, ..."

Well, even Lawrence Yun is having to deal with the reality that housing is in the early days of a historic and epic crash. And even though just a few days ago he put out a report that 2008 would be rosy, today the NAR did an about-face and admitted that 2008 is gonna suck.

Although their definition of "suck" is still nowhere near reality. You have economists predicting a 25% decline in prices and the NAR is saying 1.2%.

Yeah, good luck with that.

realtors and the NAR are now beyond hope. The realtor profession is dead, it is discredited, it is disrespected and it is destroyed. And the NAR represents the very worst of the profession - corrupt, lying and anti-American.

F*ck the NAR. F*ck Lawrence Yun. And f*ck the realtors. The jig is up.

Home prices set to slide in '08 - National Association of Realtors pulls back on outlook and forecasts second consecutive annual decline in prices and sales

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In a fresh sign that the nation's housing crisis will worsen, home prices are likely to decline in 2008 for the second straight year, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

"We're seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly," said Lawrence Yun, the group's chief economist, in a statement.

Mr. Yun Spouts More Nonsense in Denver

Lawrence Yun traveled to Denver and spouts more nonsense. The Denver Post reports that:

“The subprime-mortgage crisis already is a thing of the past and should not affect the housing market going forward, Yun said. ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost. Subprime is a past event that’s unrelated to homebuying.’”

The subprime mortgage crises is NOT a thing of the past. It is still very much a part of the housing market as over 250 billions dollars of subprime mortgages reset in the next couple of years (see chart below). Yun is a subprime economist and has lost his credibility.

Yun Shilling Irrational Optimism

Yun is at it again, shilling irrational optimism to the media who seem only to happy to quote this discredited shill.

“‘The exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain,’ Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. ‘A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008.’” (AP News)

Really? You have lost your credibility. Don't listen to this paid spinner as he has been wrong many times before. He is paid to spin optimistic mesages on behalf of the real estate industial complex (REIC).