Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Ridiculous: USA Today Names Lawrence Yun as Top Economic Forecaster

The USA Today named Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors as its fifth top economic forecaster. Here is the USA Today Article.

The National Association of Realtors(R) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has been named among the top 10 economic forecasters by USA Today. Yun is ranked fifth on the list and is responsible for NAR's real estate statistics and economic forecasting. The annual list recognizes accuracy in forecasting.

I'm honored to be recognized among some of the best economists in the country," said Yun. "The economy and housing industry are facing many challenging issues at this time, which makes this an interesting and stimulating position

USA Today certainly did not do its homework. Have they read the Lawrence Yun Watch?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.Do not trust Lawrence Yun.

Yun even recently admitted that "It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast."

The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility. The USA Today should be ashamed of its shoddy work.

9 comments:

openweb said...

I hate the idea of a trusted economist being paid to ease our worries about the housing market. Its a bit of an understatement to say the economy is facing many "challenging" issues. I want to see someone who can provide a solution and get the economy back on track, not just some chump paid to keep people investing. www.mortgages2suitu.co.uk

DaveO said...

Yun has been wrong in his general predictions of the housing market recovering for at least a couple of years (even though he didn't take over for Lereah until a year ago).

How the heck did USA today reach their conclusion?

Jim said...

Not to defend Mr. Yun (and thank you for the comment on my blog the other day) - but ... how many economists predicted the current housing market correctly?

Jim said...

Not to defend Mr. Yun, but which economists accurately predicted our current housing market?

Thank you by the way, for the comment you made on my blog last week.

What would you ask Mr. Yun?

Deflation Cometh said...

"Not to defend Mr. Yun (and thank you for the comment on my blog the other day) - but ... how many economists predicted the current housing market correctly?"

PLENTY of economists warned of the situation we were in today. What did they all have in common? They were independent and not paid shills of an organization or trade group.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

You've failed to include an email address whereby we can register our disagreement?

Please do - it would help things along.

Cheers, Haggis

David said...

"but ... how many economists predicted the current housing market correctly?"

Dean Baker
Robert Shiller
Roubini

Anonymous said...

how many predicted the fall of the real estate market? First off, everyone that refused to buy at these sky high prices knew they weren't sustainable. 2nd, there were a number of guys predicting this for years. Everyone made fun of them like they were kooky and missing the gravy train. But if you want me to name one, his name is Peter Schiff.

Anonymous said...

plenty of guys got rich by shorting the housing market