Yun Bashed in Times Online

Lawrence Yun was bashed in the Times (from Britain). Here is an excerpt.

So irritating has NAR become that Yun now has his own hater blog (Lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot. com). The same people ran a blog blasting his predecessor, David Lereah.

To be fair to Yun, Lereah seems the more deserving target. Lereah is a classic booster who once advised people it was a great time to buy and to sell.

Mr. Yun's September 2005 Prediction is Way Off

Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 6.3%.

Do not trust Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility.

A simple question for Lawrence Yun

Mr. Yun,

What exactly is it that makes you think US home sales and prices will rebound next year?

* The record and swelling inventory?
* The worldwide crashing debt markets?
* The millions of REIC losing their jobs?
* The fact that renting is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper than "owning"?
* The massive fraud-related demand that will NEVER come back?
* The congressional investigations?
* The disappearance of no-down, no-doc mortgages?
* The looming recession?
* The blowup over at Fannie and Freddie?
* The hundreds of mortgage companies that have failed?
* The tightened lending requirements?
* The complete loss of confidence amongst potential buyers?
* The sea of foreclosures?
* The massive wave of ARM resets
* The destruction of collateralized debt, CDOs and SIVs?
* The loss of buying power of the US dollar?
* The plunging consumer confidence index?

I could go on. But Mr. Yun, please illuminate us. You're the Senior Economist after all, and obviously we have no idea what we're talking about here. You must know something we don't know. Your detailed and sophisticated NAR financial models must be seeing something we can't see. You must think Manias, Panics and Crashes is a bunch of hooey. And you must have 21 great reasons too (the year round golf, right?).

So do tell. Please share with us your detailed financial modeling and statistical evidence that has led you as an economist to your conclusions. The floor is yours.

The market for existing homes is "hitting the low right now" and heading for a "modest recovery" next year, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said at the group's annual convention here Tuesday.

NAR expects the national median price of existing homes to decline 1.7 percent to $218,200 for this year and hold steady in 2008.

Yun said housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes. "The pent-up demand is there," he said.

OK, so Lawrence Yun reads HousingPANIC and LawrenceYunWatch. So we have a message for him...

This is gonna be a bit direct, so sorry HP'ers, but it is deserved, and it is our responsibility:

LAWRENCE YUN, GO F*CK YOURSELF.

Shall I go on? Ok.

Lawrence Yun, you go to work every day and do evil. You help ruin lives. Your parents are likely ashamed of you. Your college professors wonder where they went wrong.

Just stop. Be a man. Quit the NAR tomorrow. Come clean. You'll make MILLIONS by doing the right thing, turning against the evildoers at the NAR, versus the thousands you're making today on their leash. You'll be the star of the 2008 Senate Hearings (instead of the dick). You'll do your family proud. You'll regain your humanity. You'll do good.

Or not.

Seriously, Lawrence, life is too short to be a stooge, a pawn, a hack, a conman, a liar. Life is too short to be the paid shill of the most evil and disrespected organization in America today. Life is too short to spin lies for realtors. Life is too short to be Lawrence Yun. I truly want you to see the evil you're doing in your life, and step away from the dark side. Seriously, Lawrence. Join the forces of good. Send me a note. Quit your job. Be a man.

Meanwhile, HP'ers, here's the latest evil-doing from the man himself, care of Diana's blog at CNBC, followed by his lies to the media earlier today. God, I hope this person finds truth, reason and a sense of purpose. What hell it must be to be Lawrence Yun. Please join me in sending your personal messages to Lawrence Yun, and his masters at the NAR.

Lawrence Yun: "I'm glad we are living in a free society where we have the right for the bloggers to blog and have fun at it. So it's great that people can blog.

In terms of the forecast, we have revised down our forecast based upon all the fresh information that arrives in the latest month and as a result we think it's responsible to modify the forecast incorporating new information.

We have revised down our forecast by, I believe, by 8 straight months according to some bloggers. I have never kept track of it. I just try to make the most accurate forecasts, but because of this information I have been tracking the blue chip forecast on the housing starts, they don't have a forecast for the home sales, but on the blue chip which is comprised of Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch and many others, and they have revised down their housing forecasts for 20 straight months.

The fact that NAR is getting a lot of publicity, that's all good for us that people are paying attention to what we are saying, but just factual information, I think everyone from Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs they are revising down their housing market forecast."

And here's the infuriating lies and disinformation Lawrence Yun was forced to put out by the NAR earlier today:

As bleak as the data are, the fundamentals of the market don't support a further decline in sales, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, who said low mortgage rates and job growth should keep sales from falling. While the subprime mortgage market has disappeared, the Federal Housing Administration is picking up its lending.

"I don't anticipate any further major sales declines," Yun said. However, the NAR didn't anticipate the sales declines of the past two years, and it's been predicting a bottom nearly every month since early 2006.

If sales do continue to fall because of negative market psychology aided by "sensationalized" news reporting, "it would be a major concern" and "would raise the risk of an economic recession," Yun said.

Yun: Florida is Ground Zero for Housing

“While home sales have dropped nationwide, they have plummeted in Florida, which is ‘ground zero for the housing market slump,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.”

Yun Makes Misleading Investment Comparison

“Home buyers in it for the long haul nearly always come out ahead in building wealth. Given the leverage in purchasing a home, the average return on a 5 percent downpayment over 10 years is usually three to five times greater than stock market returns,” he said. “When people compare investment returns, they often overlook the power of leverage in the housing market.”

Yun said a $10,000 downpayment on a median-priced home, at a typical appreciation rate of 5 percent, would be worth $110,000 after 10 years. That same amount invested in the stock market for the same amount of time, assuming 10 percent annual appreciation, would be worth $23,600. “That’s why housing is the best long-term investment most families ever make – the longer you own, the better your investment,” he said. (Realtor.org 11/12/07)

Yun you are intentionally misleading. Stocks don't require monthly mortgage payments, yearly taxes or maintenance costs. Housing units do. Lawrence 'paid misleader' Yun cannot and should not be trusted.

Lawrence Yun Interview

Lawrence Yun Interview

Lawrence Yun Promoted to Chief Economist

Lawrence Yun was promoted to chief economist (aka spinner) for the National Association of Realtors (NAR). In a press release from NAR:

The National Association of Realtors® today named Lawrence Yun chief economist and senior vice president of research. Yun has served at NAR since 2000, most recently as vice president and senior economist.


“Lawrence is a talented economist and an outstanding forecaster who has contributed greatly to NAR’s growth and prestige as the leading advocate for the housing industry,” said Dale Stinton, NAR executive vice president and chief executive officer. “We are proud to have a man of Lawrence’s integrity and honor.


“He is a no-nonsense and level-headed analyst of the housing market who calls the data as he sees it, and has guided NAR with skill as chief spokesman for the past several months in a competitive real estate market. We have great faith and trust that Lawrence’s tenure will be a stellar one that will enhance NAR’s reputation as the most reliable and credible source of real estate research.”



Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster;' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 he predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. " As we know priced have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction.

Do not trust Mr. Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility.

LawrenceYunWatch Stupid Question of the Day

Should Lawrence Yun and David Lereah be prosecuted for their lies?

Lawrence Yun Spins And Misrepresents Data

The National Association Of Realtors released their September 2007 existing home sales data. The numbers showed the housing market continues to decline.

• National: Months supply of housing increased from 9.6 in August 07 to 10.5 this month
  
• National: Months supply of housing increased from 7.3 in September 06 to 10.5
• National: Inventory was up .4% this month compare to last and up 16.3% over last September
• National: September 07 Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last month -8%
• National: September 07 Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last year -19.1%
• National: September 07 Not Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last month -28.9%
• National: September 07 Not Seasonally Adjusted Sales Numbers vs last year -22.7%

They quickly turned their spin machine into overdrive. Lawrence Yun blamed 'temporary' problems in the mortgage market and assured us these mortgage 'problems' were already improving.

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said the decline is understandable. “Mortgage problems were peaking back in August when many of the September closings were being negotiated, and that slowed sales notably in higher priced areas that rely more on jumbo loans,” he said. “The good news is that mortgage availability has markedly improved in recent weeks with interest rates on jumbo loans falling, and more people are applying for safer and conforming FHA mortgage products. Some of the cancelled transactions will move forward as buyers apply for other loans.”

Mr. Yun went on to say that prices were really rising in many area.

“Because there were fewer transactions at the upper end of the market, there is a downward distortion reflected in a lower national median home price. Home prices continue to trend up in the Northeast and in the condo sector. In other areas not dependent on jumbo loans, such as much of the Midwest, prices are rising.”

The evidence shows that overall prices are not rising in both the Northeast and the condo market. Look at the Case Schiller Index as well as date from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

Remember last year in September the NAR reported "Total existing-home sales -- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops -- dipped 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.18 million" David Lereah the NAR's cheif economist, and Yun's boss at the time said "this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction -- this is likely the trough for sales." Since then the seasonally adjusted rate is down 19% to 5.04 million. Some trough? The NAR's spokespeople cannot be trusted as they are paid shills who give propagandist predictions. They are super spinners.

No Yun! Speculative Prices Still Exist

Image from: Is There A Housing Bubble?

“‘The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains,’ Yun said.”

In bubble markets across the country, speculative excesses not only occurred in terms of the number of housing units sold, but also the prices are speculative. The speculative excesses cannot be removed unless real dollar prices fall much more in bubble markets. Stopping spinning Yun! Accept the harsh reality of the declining housing market, that is a long way from bottom.

Stupid, uninformed and deceptive Lawrence Yun Quote of the Day

"Many people who thought they had a loan just did not come through at the last moment on the closing table," said Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors.

Uh, Larry, those horrific cancellation numbers you're seeing are because home prices are crashing and people aren't believing your BS anymore.

The fact that people can't get toxic loans and jumbos anymore is actually the only thing saving them from making the worst financial mistake of their lives.

Nice try though Larry.

Yun Spins Large Declines In Pending Home Sales

Lawence "spinner in chief' Yun is at it again. He is busy spinning large declines in the National Association of Realtors' index of July pending sales of existing homes.

The National Association of Realtors said its seasonally adjusted index of pending home sales for July fell 16.1 percent from a year ago and 12.2 percent from the prior month.

Lawrence Yun, the Realtors trade group's senior economist, called the problems "temporary," and related to jumbo home loans above $417,000 ..(AP Business 9/5/07)"



The depression was also temporary. The housing market in many parts of the US is undergoing large price declines, falling construction starts and lousy sales. The housing market is not ready to 'bottom out' or 'stabilize.' There will be many more years of this housing bust. Mr. "Spinner in chief' Yun is a paid shill who cannot be trusted.

David Lereah has admitted he was wrong. Can't You?

LawrenceYunWatch and HousingPANIC have a message for Lawrence Yun and the NAR

Message to Lawrence Yun and the NAR: Kiss our blogger butt.

So you think we burst your precious bubble?

So you think we're the ones responsible for the declining median home price?

So you think we're to blame for record inventory?

I guess the mortgage meltdown is all our fault?

Look in the mirror Lawrene Yun. And give your buddy David Lereah a ring too.

You're responsible. You caused this mess. You are the evildoers. You destroyed an American industry. You ruined lives. You caused a wave a foreclosures. And you hurt America.

We just pointed out the facts while you were still lying. And the people finally figured it out.

The Wrong Correction

BY LAWRENCE YUN, NAR SENIOR ECONOMIST

Consumers are hearing a lot in the media about the correction in housing, and they’re understandably concerned about whether now is a good time to get into the housing market.

This hesitancy is evident in home sales volume: Even though interest rates fell to 6.2 percent in early 2007 from 6.8 percent in August 2006, and the economy added 3.5 million new jobs, existing-home sales were down 8.5 percent in 2006, with further softening expected in 2007.

The irony, of course, is that although declines in sales volume have hurt real estate practitioners, they may be a plus for consumers. To a great extent, we can thank steady media coverage of the real estate market “correction” for unfounded consumer concerns.

So, do you think America has gotten the message that Lawrence Yun, like David Lereah before him, is an untrustworthy, discredited hack?

I think so. And how sad for Yun, that he lies for money.

Only question is - what took so damn long for the media to realize it had been had (again)? Had to wait until the meltdown was in full effect and we were knee deep in it?

Here's a REALLY harsh look at Yun and the NAR from housingpanic supporter Seth Jayson at Motley Fool:

Lace up the hip waders, Fools, because it's time once again for our monthly trip through the National Association of Realtors' home sales numbers.

You know, the PR in which trained economists -- in service to an organization that wants a 6% cut on every used home sale in the U.S. -- spin elaborate fantasies that fly in the face of logic, but always just happen to support that noble, 6% goal.

Here are the facts, according to the NAR press release. July home sales were down 9% from July 2006. Current NAR spinner-in-chief Lawrence Yun claims down is up -- or at least, not down -- calling this drop "Stable." Better yet, he provides a completely unsupported supposition, arguing, "Home sales probably would be rising in the absence of the mortgage liquidity issues of the past two months."

FLASH: American Home Mortgage melts down - stock falls 90%. Lawrence Yun still thinks housing will be fine and dandy.

Lawrence - if people can't get mortgages anymore, who's going to buy some of that record inventory? Come on, you're an "economist" - you gotta understand supply and demand, right?

Right?

American Home plunges on bankruptcy concern - Mortgage lender hires advisers for 'orderly liquidation of assets

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. said Tuesday it has missed margin calls from its lenders and hired advisers to consider strategic options including the liquidation of its assets.

Shares of the company plunged 90% to $1.04 on concern the company may file for bankruptcy protection.

Meanwhile, in LawrenceYunLand:

"We are encouraged that home prices, at least for now, have stopped declining," said Lawrence Yun, senior economist at NAR. "If they were to drop much larger than that, it could tip the economy into recession." The association has predicted that existing home sales will fall by 1 to 2 percent in 2007.

From HousingPANIC: Real Economist (NOT Lawrence Yun) Quotes of Brilliance

"No one is buying into their Kool-Aid; that's why prices are falling"

- Paul Kasriel, chief economist with Northern Trust in Chicago, questioned the Realtors' assessment that this is a good time to enter the market, saying weak sales and prices suggest that potential buyers are smart to be sitting on the sidelines right now.

Lawrence Yun says potential homedebtors are getting "mixed signals, causing them to hesitate". Let us help clear that up.

POTENTIAL HOMEDEBTORS - FOR THE LOVE OF GOD AND ALL THAT IS HOLY, DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT BUYING A RAPIDLY DEPRECIATING HOME. THIS MARKET CRASH WILL TAKE YEARS TO PLAY OUT

-Sincerely, your friends at LawrenceYunWatch

Yun: "buying conditions remain favorable for long-term home buyers"

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said some consumers are uncertain.

“Home buyers have been getting mixed signals about the housing market, which is causing some of them to hesitate,” he said.

“Mortgage interest rates have risen recently, and tightening lending standards are continuing to hamper sales, but fewer risky loans will put the market on a healthier path. Although general buying conditions remain favorable for long-term home buyers, it appears some buyers are looking for more signs of stability before they have enough confidence to make an offer.”

According to Yun, and the shills at the NAR, it is always a good time to buy! Buy, Buy, Buy!

Lawrence Yun points out that a 70% crash in new household formation is "very unusual". Nice job Larry! Master of the obvious!

When homes get so expensive that nobody can afford a home, guess what?

New household formation plummets and home prices crash.

Ya gotta wonder if Lawrence Yun ever actually took an economics class. I have my doubts...

The number of people who are moving in with friends or family, or sharing apartments or houses to save money, has caught economists at the Realtors association off-guard. The growth in "new households" — first-time buyers or first-time renters — has plunged 70% from last year's rate.

"This is very unusual," says Lawrence Yun, the NAR's senior economist. "Even during a recession, household formations do not slow to this current level."