A History Of Wrong Predictions By The Chief Economists of the National Association of Realtors

A History Of Wrong Predictions By The Chief Economists of the National Association of Realtors. This would be the discredited David Lereah and Lawrence Yun.

Click on the image for a larger version. David Lereah left the NAR in May 2007.

Lawrence Yun Predicted No Recession in 2008

In predictions supplied to USA Today, Lawrence Yun predicted that there would not be a recession in 2008.

5. Lawrence Yun
Chief economist, National Association of Realtors
Fed rate 2008 low 2.25%
Recession in 2008? No

Lawrence Yun Watch #1 On Google for Term 'Lawrence Yun'

This blog, the Lawrence Yun Watch, makes #1 on Google when searching for 'Lawrence Yun'.

Take that Yun, you discredited paid spinner. The truth is being revealed.

Ridiculous: USA Today Names Lawrence Yun as Top Economic Forecaster

The USA Today named Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors as its fifth top economic forecaster. Here is the USA Today Article.

The National Association of Realtors(R) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has been named among the top 10 economic forecasters by USA Today. Yun is ranked fifth on the list and is responsible for NAR's real estate statistics and economic forecasting. The annual list recognizes accuracy in forecasting.

I'm honored to be recognized among some of the best economists in the country," said Yun. "The economy and housing industry are facing many challenging issues at this time, which makes this an interesting and stimulating position

USA Today certainly did not do its homework. Have they read the Lawrence Yun Watch?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.Do not trust Lawrence Yun.

Yun even recently admitted that "It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast."

The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility. The USA Today should be ashamed of its shoddy work.

Lawrence Yun Proposes Federal Dollars to Grease Home Buying

Lawrence Yun proposes federal government dollars to grease home buying.

What is critically needed at this important point in the housing cycle is a measure to assuredly and quickly raise home buying activity. This can be accomplished by providing a homebuyer tax-credit. A nationwide $5,000 tax credit (the same amount currently in existence for homebuyers in Washington, D.C.) will cost the federal government $40 billion. If factoring in rising economic activity and accompanying rising tax revenue, then the true cost could be minimal or even positively favorable. A reversal in the weakness in the housing market, which has been subtracting about one percentage point off GDP growth, can add $40 billion to the U.S. Treasury - essentially offsetting the cost of the tax credit. If the initial $40 billion cost is harder to swallow than a more targeted tax credit for only the first-time homebuyers will cost the government about $15 billion.

No way! This discredited Realtor hack's proposal is ridiculous. The US Government should not give out more incentives for people to purchase overpriced housing units. The US Government already has a large deficit and enormous debt. It would be unwise to spend needed money to assist and encourage people to buy depreciating assets.

Keith Writes: Now he wants to get housing demand flowing again (while stimulating realtor commissions of course) not by the traditional means of lowering prices, but by bribing buyers with a tax credit.

Here's a suggestion Lawrence - IT'S CALLED LOWER THE DAMN PRICES.

You want demand (and realtor commissions) to return? You might want to check out the relationship between demand and price. They taught you that in your Econ 101 class at Purdue, right? We know you read HP, so please brush up on your econ 101 here that Purdue must have failed to teach you. Glad we could help.

Folks, any sucker dumb enough to take a $5,000 government bribe to buy a depreciating debt-trap would be an even bigger idiot than Lawrence Yun. And that's saying something.Oh, Yun says this would ONLY cost the US taxpayer $40 billion. What a deal!

Lawrence Yun Roundup

NAR is Spinister. Solid article outlining the major communications problems the NAR has during the housing bubble era.

This guy Wants Yun Out as Chief Economist

NAR Wisdom - solid site. "This weblog was created out of frustration. Frustration with the NAR. They seem almost completely out of touch with today's market, and the needs of real estate agents and real estate consumers alike"

One Realtor is not happy paying Yun's Salary.

Yun Says Housing Market is "Scrathing Bottom"

Reuters reports that "The NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the market is 'scratching the bottom,' with sales holding at a deflated rate of around 5 million units for the past several months."

That is just what Yun's mentor the infamous David Lereah said in March 2007: "Sales have hovered for the last four months, scratching bottom and then coming up, scratching bottom and coming up again. We are comfortable this is now the bottom"

Lawrence Yun Cannot be Trusted

Lawrence Yun, the chief paid spinner at the Realtors Association regularly speaks at real estate related gatherings throughout country. The Rockford Register Star reports:

The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors had a strong message to potential home buyers who may be waiting to see if prices in the Rock River Valley will go into free fall before putting in an offer.“There is no chance of a large price decline in Rockford,” Lawrence Yun told a crowd of more than 400 at Cliffbreakers, 700 W. Riverside Blvd. “There is not a price bubble in Rockford.”

But, can he be trusted?

In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined significantly in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 8.4%.

Do not trust Lawrence Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven very wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid spinner who has lost his credibility.

PIGS FLY ALERT!!! LAWRENCE YUN ADMITS TO HOUSING BUBBLE AND COLLAPSE, AND LOUSY NAR FORECASTS, AND CALLS SUBPRIME MORTAGES A "FOOLISH INVESTMENT"

No, this is not a HP April Fools joke, it's real. Yun still has his head up his rear, and is still putting out bulls*it forecasts, but I think he's trying to prepare the ground for his eventual and unavoidable resignation from the NAR, knowing he'll need to find new work after that.

You'll love the latest commentary from Yun - he tries to throw HousingPANIC under the bus, and even defends Alan Greenspan, saying he didn't cause the housing bubble. Unreal.

A simple question comes to mind - how much longer will the six-percenters keep paying their dues to the very organization doing them the most harm?

Here's the latest musings from the most discredited economist in the world, Lawrence Yun, writing for the most discredited organization in the world, the National Association of Realtors:

Back in 2001, in the aftermath of the internet stock bubble collapse and the September 11 terrorist attacks, Alan Greenspan — then the Fed chairman — made deep cuts in interest rates in order to stave off a possible economic recession. Many also blame Mr. Greenspan for having fueled the housing market bubble and subsequent collapse by keeping the rates too low for too long.

Though some in the blogosphere have figured Alan Greenspan as one of the key persons to blame for the current housing mess, I do not blame Mr. Greenspan. I believe there is plenty of blame to go around due to other factors.

It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast. I knew that the boom was clearly unsustainable and I made the forecast in early 2007 that home prices were likely to experience a price decline on a national level for the first time since the Great Depression. The national median home price indeed fell by 1.4%. I believe I downgraded my forecast for ten or so straight months in 2007 as it was strongly pointed out to me. At the same time, the Blue Chip consensus forecast, comprised of about top 50 private forecasters, including forecasts by Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UCLA, and the like — had also downgraded the housing forecast by more than 20 straight months. Forecasting is never perfect. Forecasts are bound to be off but the forecaster's job is to make the best prognosis given the available information at the time. The readers should always view any forecast with caveat emptor.

Will we experience a re-emergence of a housing boom from the current easy money policy by the Fed? The answer is no because as Abraham Lincoln said — fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It will be impossible to part global capital providers' money with another foolish investment.

Commentators at Calculated Risk Bash Mr. Yun

Commentators at Calculated Risk Blog Bash Mr. Yun. We need a louder chorus of people to bash Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun.

As far as NAR goes, the chief Economists forecasts have been way off for such a long time. It makes me wonder if his models incorporate a factor that puts more weight on his association member's best interest, than good economics. To me what comes out of that office as far as forecasts have very little credibility these days. [commentator: canuck]

If I have the NAR and Yun's (il)logic understood correctly, "All real estate is local," except when offering criticism of Case-Shiller. Then, Dr. Shiller is some profit-engineering hack with an agenda, and doesn't take into account broader trends. [commentator: kurtyboy]


Yun's bias of course is given, but this piece is just shocking in how poorly it is argued and written. Chief economist of the NAR! If a 25-year-old MBA investment banking recruit delivered this to his bankers/traders as a summary of differing indices, it would be seen as unacceptably poor work. [commentator: numbacrunch]

The NAR should just hire that Baghdad Bob Iraqi information minister. [commentator: Speaker73]

We all know NAR spews lies, propaganda, false housing data, etc. As far as I'm concerned anything NAR has to say is unimportant fictional gibberish and a waste of time reading. It borders on insulting when NAR fairy tails corrupt the pages of Calculated Risk. [commentator: CAT]

Mr Yun, we've put up with your nonsense because every chankered hooker needs to earn a living. But you'll learn to watch your mouth around your betters, or you'll be tasting the back of my hand. [commentator: Markel]

PS: Everyone used to complain about Lereah, but to me Yun seems infinitely less connected to reality. [commentator: MaxedOutMama]


Lawrence Yun is a Shill. His directive is to try to gain some credibiity so people buy houses and realtors make commissions. Anyone who listens to anything he says is a fool. [commentator: Ministry of Truth]


It's really quite amazing to see the lead NAR shill trying to paint Shiller as a shill. Geez, he basically accuses him of being un-American (quote, an approach that flies directly in the face of the American sense of democratic values.) The NAR comedy keeps coming! [commentator:
ShortCourage]

Lawrence Yun Spins In Rochester

Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun is back blaming the media and saying the housing slump is 'greatly exaggerated.' This paid spinner does not know when to be quiet. The Rochester Democrat Chronicle wrote:

Talk of a pending recession spurred by a housing slump is greatly exaggerated by national media and could spur a self-fulfilling prophecy as the negative news is emphasized, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors told local real estate agents today.“Paraphrasing Franklin Delano Roosevelt, what I fear is fear itself,” Lawrence Yun said at the Greater Rochester Association of Realtors 2008 Real Estate Trends and Issues luncheon today at the Hyatt Regency Hotel.

Yun told the audience that the national news outlets tend to cherry pick data and expert interviews to perpetuate the story that the economy is heading into recession as housing prices fall and foreclosure rates rise.“If the news organizations have an agenda, they will call somebody and they’ll get the information they want,” he said.

Mr. Yun has not yet reached the level absurdity of the infamous David Lereah, but he is sure heading in that direction. Yun has been discredited for his paid spining and his ridiculous predictions.

Lawrence Yun should be fired because he has lost his credibility. The NAR should get out of the business of making predictions about the housing market as they have been so wrong, often.

LawrenceYunWatch calls for the immediate firing of the NAR's "chief economist" Lawrence Yun

But hey, we're not holding our breath.

Everyone by now knows that Lawrence Yun, and before him David Lereah, are completely and totally discredited by now. The MSM should never print one quote from this paid liar without first stating "Lawrence Yun, who is paid to lie by the NAR, ..."

Well, even Lawrence Yun is having to deal with the reality that housing is in the early days of a historic and epic crash. And even though just a few days ago he put out a report that 2008 would be rosy, today the NAR did an about-face and admitted that 2008 is gonna suck.

Although their definition of "suck" is still nowhere near reality. You have economists predicting a 25% decline in prices and the NAR is saying 1.2%.

Yeah, good luck with that.

realtors and the NAR are now beyond hope. The realtor profession is dead, it is discredited, it is disrespected and it is destroyed. And the NAR represents the very worst of the profession - corrupt, lying and anti-American.

F*ck the NAR. F*ck Lawrence Yun. And f*ck the realtors. The jig is up.

Home prices set to slide in '08 - National Association of Realtors pulls back on outlook and forecasts second consecutive annual decline in prices and sales

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In a fresh sign that the nation's housing crisis will worsen, home prices are likely to decline in 2008 for the second straight year, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

"We're seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly," said Lawrence Yun, the group's chief economist, in a statement.

Mr. Yun Spouts More Nonsense in Denver

Lawrence Yun traveled to Denver and spouts more nonsense. The Denver Post reports that:

“The subprime-mortgage crisis already is a thing of the past and should not affect the housing market going forward, Yun said. ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost. Subprime is a past event that’s unrelated to homebuying.’”

The subprime mortgage crises is NOT a thing of the past. It is still very much a part of the housing market as over 250 billions dollars of subprime mortgages reset in the next couple of years (see chart below). Yun is a subprime economist and has lost his credibility.

Yun Shilling Irrational Optimism

Yun is at it again, shilling irrational optimism to the media who seem only to happy to quote this discredited shill.

“‘The exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain,’ Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. ‘A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008.’” (AP News)

Really? You have lost your credibility. Don't listen to this paid spinner as he has been wrong many times before. He is paid to spin optimistic mesages on behalf of the real estate industial complex (REIC).

Here he is - the Master of Lies himself - Mr. Lawrence Yun of the NAR!!!!

Yun Bashed in Times Online

Lawrence Yun was bashed in the Times (from Britain). Here is an excerpt.

So irritating has NAR become that Yun now has his own hater blog (Lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot. com). The same people ran a blog blasting his predecessor, David Lereah.

To be fair to Yun, Lereah seems the more deserving target. Lereah is a classic booster who once advised people it was a great time to buy and to sell.

Mr. Yun's September 2005 Prediction is Way Off

Mr. Yun is not an 'outstanding forecaster' his forecasts have been way off the mark. In September 2005 Yun predicted "The chance of a housing price decline in the DC area is close to zero, in my view. I anticipate that prices in DC will outpace the national average price growth. DC prices will rise at close to a 7 to 10 % rate of appreciation. "

As we know prices have declined in the DC area since Yun's wrong prediction. According to the S&P Case Shiller Index, since September 2005 DC area prices have fallen 6.3%.

Do not trust Lawrence 'paid spinner' Yun. The general public and media need to be aware of his spins, predictions that have proven wrong, and his contradictory statements. Mr Yun is a paid shill who has lost his credibility.

A simple question for Lawrence Yun

Mr. Yun,

What exactly is it that makes you think US home sales and prices will rebound next year?

* The record and swelling inventory?
* The worldwide crashing debt markets?
* The millions of REIC losing their jobs?
* The fact that renting is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper than "owning"?
* The massive fraud-related demand that will NEVER come back?
* The congressional investigations?
* The disappearance of no-down, no-doc mortgages?
* The looming recession?
* The blowup over at Fannie and Freddie?
* The hundreds of mortgage companies that have failed?
* The tightened lending requirements?
* The complete loss of confidence amongst potential buyers?
* The sea of foreclosures?
* The massive wave of ARM resets
* The destruction of collateralized debt, CDOs and SIVs?
* The loss of buying power of the US dollar?
* The plunging consumer confidence index?

I could go on. But Mr. Yun, please illuminate us. You're the Senior Economist after all, and obviously we have no idea what we're talking about here. You must know something we don't know. Your detailed and sophisticated NAR financial models must be seeing something we can't see. You must think Manias, Panics and Crashes is a bunch of hooey. And you must have 21 great reasons too (the year round golf, right?).

So do tell. Please share with us your detailed financial modeling and statistical evidence that has led you as an economist to your conclusions. The floor is yours.

The market for existing homes is "hitting the low right now" and heading for a "modest recovery" next year, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said at the group's annual convention here Tuesday.

NAR expects the national median price of existing homes to decline 1.7 percent to $218,200 for this year and hold steady in 2008.

Yun said housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes. "The pent-up demand is there," he said.

OK, so Lawrence Yun reads HousingPANIC and LawrenceYunWatch. So we have a message for him...

This is gonna be a bit direct, so sorry HP'ers, but it is deserved, and it is our responsibility:

LAWRENCE YUN, GO F*CK YOURSELF.

Shall I go on? Ok.

Lawrence Yun, you go to work every day and do evil. You help ruin lives. Your parents are likely ashamed of you. Your college professors wonder where they went wrong.

Just stop. Be a man. Quit the NAR tomorrow. Come clean. You'll make MILLIONS by doing the right thing, turning against the evildoers at the NAR, versus the thousands you're making today on their leash. You'll be the star of the 2008 Senate Hearings (instead of the dick). You'll do your family proud. You'll regain your humanity. You'll do good.

Or not.

Seriously, Lawrence, life is too short to be a stooge, a pawn, a hack, a conman, a liar. Life is too short to be the paid shill of the most evil and disrespected organization in America today. Life is too short to spin lies for realtors. Life is too short to be Lawrence Yun. I truly want you to see the evil you're doing in your life, and step away from the dark side. Seriously, Lawrence. Join the forces of good. Send me a note. Quit your job. Be a man.

Meanwhile, HP'ers, here's the latest evil-doing from the man himself, care of Diana's blog at CNBC, followed by his lies to the media earlier today. God, I hope this person finds truth, reason and a sense of purpose. What hell it must be to be Lawrence Yun. Please join me in sending your personal messages to Lawrence Yun, and his masters at the NAR.

Lawrence Yun: "I'm glad we are living in a free society where we have the right for the bloggers to blog and have fun at it. So it's great that people can blog.

In terms of the forecast, we have revised down our forecast based upon all the fresh information that arrives in the latest month and as a result we think it's responsible to modify the forecast incorporating new information.

We have revised down our forecast by, I believe, by 8 straight months according to some bloggers. I have never kept track of it. I just try to make the most accurate forecasts, but because of this information I have been tracking the blue chip forecast on the housing starts, they don't have a forecast for the home sales, but on the blue chip which is comprised of Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch and many others, and they have revised down their housing forecasts for 20 straight months.

The fact that NAR is getting a lot of publicity, that's all good for us that people are paying attention to what we are saying, but just factual information, I think everyone from Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs they are revising down their housing market forecast."

And here's the infuriating lies and disinformation Lawrence Yun was forced to put out by the NAR earlier today:

As bleak as the data are, the fundamentals of the market don't support a further decline in sales, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun, who said low mortgage rates and job growth should keep sales from falling. While the subprime mortgage market has disappeared, the Federal Housing Administration is picking up its lending.

"I don't anticipate any further major sales declines," Yun said. However, the NAR didn't anticipate the sales declines of the past two years, and it's been predicting a bottom nearly every month since early 2006.

If sales do continue to fall because of negative market psychology aided by "sensationalized" news reporting, "it would be a major concern" and "would raise the risk of an economic recession," Yun said.

Yun: Florida is Ground Zero for Housing

“While home sales have dropped nationwide, they have plummeted in Florida, which is ‘ground zero for the housing market slump,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.”